The press, in every country, is so busy scrutinizing their country’s position in the Middle East conflict that they are ignoring the global negotiations between the White House and the Kremlin, and in so doing; they are incorrectly interpreting side events.
To clarify the current diplomatic anxiety, we must return to the US-Russian agreement from last September.
The public part of this agreement was made by Russia in a document distributed at the UN Security Council on September 29th. It indicated that to restore peace and stability in North Africa and the Middle East, it is necessary and sufficient to implement the resolutions of the Security Council, implying the Israeli withdrawal to its 1967 borders in particular, and fighting against terrorist ideology; that is to say against both the Muslim Brotherhood created by the UK and supported by Turkey as well as against Wahhabism spread by Saudi Arabia.
It was originally planned that Russia adopts a resolution to this effect at the meeting at the Security Council on September 30th. However, the US opposed this in the final hour. Sergey Lavrov then chaired the session without mentioning his project. This major event can only be interpreted as a tactical disagreement that shouldn’t hamper a strategic agreement.
On October 20th, President Vladimir Putin received his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in the Kremlin. The meeting was attended by Putin’s ministers of defense and foreign affairs, general secretary of the Russian National Security Council and the head of the secret service. The interview focused on the implementation of the Russian-United States- plan, including that of the Geneva report of the 30th of June 2012. President al-Assad argued that he was following the instructions of the report and that he, in his government, incorporated the opposition parties that made the request in accordance with the description made by the report about a transitional Government.
Being satisfied that the two countries had the same reading of the Geneva report, Russia and the United States decided to concentrate on the rebel States, namely France, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Knowing that the French position is not based on realistic interests, but solely on a colonial fantasy and corruption of the government by Turkish and Saudi money, the White House and the Kremlin decided to deal only with the real problem, namely Ankara and Riyadh. Therefore on October 23rd, John Kerry and Lavrov received their Turkish and Saudi counterparts in Vienna. No final text has been published. However, it seems that Russia had threatened the two guests without the United States defending them
Distraught about a possible Russian-American agreement against Turkey and Saudi Arabia, France called for a “working dinner”, not a “diplomatic summit” in Paris. Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, the United Kingdom and Turkey ” mentioned ” not “decided” the fate of Syria. The format of that meeting matches that of the “Core Group” of the “Friends of Syria”, except Egypt which has already secretly joined the camp of Syria. Having been forced to invite the United States spoiled the meeting. Once Again, no final text.
Finally, on October 30th, the United States and Russia met with a larger circle including all participants from the two previous meetings and Egypt, China, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Oman, the European Union and the United Nations. Though the press focused on the presence of Iran, who had been kept out of any regulation since the conflict began, they did not notice the return of Egypt’s al-Sissi who returned to the international scene thanks to the discovery of Egypt’s new oil reserves, or the continued absence of the main regional power, Israel. The latter can be explained only if Israel had previously obtained the warranty to achieve its war aims; the creation of a colonial state in northern Syria.
The participants were all asked to sign a final declaration that only the Russians and the Iranians took care to spread, and for good reason. It marked the defeat of the American hawks. Indeed, in its 8th paragraph, it is stated that the “political process” -and not the “transitional process” – will be led by the Syrians, Syrians property, and that the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria. This document invalidates the American, French, Turkish, and Saudi objective for more than three years which was the total and unconditional surrender of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Subsequent events should logically consist of making Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France march in step, which could be done while pursuing the original American objectives.
A far as Turkey is concerned, after the rigged elections on November 1st, and the victory of the AKP, the civil war will probably spread and grow to partition the country. Then it will merge the Turkish Kurdistan, Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Syrian Arab territory occupied by the Syrian Kurdsand the United States. Already, the YPG and the United States conquer an Arab territory in northern Syria. YPG who, until last month, received its weapons and trades from Damascus, turned against the Syrian Arab Republic. Their militiamen invaded and conquered villages, expelled teachers, and decreed forced Kurdistan schools. Kurdish, which was spoken and taught in schools, became the sole and compulsory language. The militias of the Syrian Arab Republic, including the Assyrians, are reduced to using arms to defend their schools against their fellow Kurds.
As for king Salman of Saudi Arabia, he will deal with his defeat in Yemen; a neighbor Saudi Arabia invaded to support a fleeing President in order to exploit the oil of “Rub al-Khali” desert with Israel. In succession, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt withdrew from the coalition. The United Arab Emirates left after suffering heavy losses among their officers while Egypt left more discreetly leaving military operations solely in the hands of the Israelis. The Houthis, pushed to the north by bombing, carried out several incursions in Saudi Arabia and have destroyed military equipment and air bases. There was a mass abandonment by the Saudi soldiers, almost all foreigners serving under the Saudi badge, which forced the king to issue a decree against post dropouts. To avoid a military disaster, Saudi Arabia then sought new allies. In exchange for hard cash, the Senegal sent 6000 men while the Sudan sent 2000 men. Mauritania hesitated to send a contingent. The king ,as it is said, would have had also sought the private Academi army (former Blackwater) that currently recruits mercenaries in Colombia. This fiasco is directly attributable to Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who claimed leadership in this war. This act weakens the authority of his father, King Salman and provokes the challenge of the two clans excluded from power, those of former King Abdullah and Prince Bandar. Logically this conflict should lead to the sharing of the heritage among the three clans which would divide the kingdom into three states.
Only after these new conflicts will peace return to the region, except in the Arab regions which have been colonized by the new Kurdistan. This will become the new point of regional conflicts, taking the place of Palestine.
But, even written, the future is uncertain. The overthrow of the balance of power between Washington and Moscow could change their agreement.
While some announce that the Russian military intervention in Syria will not bring the results expected by Moscow, the jihadists have retreated fleeing Iraq and Turkey. The head of the US military, General Joseph Dunford, admitted, on October 27th at a hearing in the Senate, that weapons appeared to be in favor of the Syrian Arab Republic. While the NATO Supreme Commander, General Philip Breedlove said on October 30th during a press conference at the Pentagon, that it’s an understatement to say that the situation is changing daily and that it now threatens the security of Europe.
It is clear that the alliance between the advocates of chaos and those of recolonization will lose not only in Syria, but even the Atlantic Alliance itself, can no longer claim global dominance. The result, a sudden agitation through the chancelleries, many saying it is time to achieve peace -this implies that their previous views had changed.
The first consequence of the “role reversal” from the Syrian crisis will result in the approval of the international role of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation; two countries that the Western press showed as totally isolated and doomed to terrible economic difficulties; two powers that are now the first regional and global military; and the second consequence will result in the maintenance of power of President al-Assad who has been told that “he must go” for the past five years.
In this context, war propaganda continues unperturbed, saying that if it is not the Russian bombings that kill civilians, the Syrian army is bombarding them; confirmed by the accusatory matrix of terrorist organizations, the Muslim Brotherhood, via their Syrian Observatory for Human Rights; or that Russia is eager to negotiate because its intervention is expensive – it is as if Russia had not budgeted during its long Preparation-. Never short on imagination, CIA director, John Brennan, claims that Russia is preparing to release al-Assad, even though President Putin mocked this self-conviction days earlier at the Valdai Club.
In France, the revolt is dominant among the political class. The four main leaders of the right, Dominique de Villepin, Francois Fillon, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Alain Juppé have individually on their part said that it is absurd to alienate Russia and to not recognize defeat in Syria. However, Alain Juppé, who played a central role in the beginning of the war, including signing a secret treaty with Turkey, continues to maintain the objective of overthrowing the Syrian Arab Republic, but later on. On the left, many leaders are considering future visits to Damascus.
Panic because of the expected changes is in fact general. Nicolas Sarkozy not only rushed to President Putin, but also to the German Vice-Chancellor, Gabriel Sigmard. He pleaded to close past bitterness and disputes, and to renew dialogue with Russia. It was about high time.
Source: Voltaire Network